| To: | File |
| From: | Patrick Ryan, CPA (Author) |
| Date: | May 5, 2026 |
| Subject: | Estimate of QuickBooks Desktop Users Choosing Non‑Intuit Alternatives Instead of QuickBooks Online |
MEMORANDUM
Executive Summary
Intuit does not publicly report a single metric for “QuickBooks Desktop users who refuse QuickBooks Online (QBO) and move to another platform.” Accordingly, the estimates below are scenario-based and intended for planning purposes rather than as a precise count.
- Estimated number of businesses “bailing” from QBO (low/base/high): approximately 105,000 / 450,000 / 1,462,500 businesses over an assumed decision window (roughly FY2025–FY2028).
- Primary destinations (base-case allocation of bailers): Xero (~35%), Zoho Books (~15%), Sage (~15%), FreshBooks (~10%), Wave (~10%), mid-market/ERP (Sage Intacct / Oracle NetSuite) (~10%), and other desktop/niche (~5%).
- Key interpretation: the “bail” number is highly sensitive to (1) the size of the impacted Desktop base, (2) how quickly firms decide they must move, and (3) the share that selects a non‑Intuit platform versus QBO.
Methodology (Scenario Model)
Model: Bailers = (Impacted QuickBooks Desktop business base) × (Share that makes a platform move during the window) × (Share of movers choosing non‑Intuit alternatives).
Sources and context: This memo relies on publicly available descriptions of the QuickBooks Desktop stop-sell/sunset dynamics and general competitor landscapes, but it does not assume a disclosed Intuit migration/attrition figure.
Scenario Inputs (Low / Base / High)
- Impacted Desktop base (businesses): 1.5M / 3.0M / 5.0M
- Move rate during the window: 35% / 50% / 65%
- Bail rate among movers (choose non‑Intuit vs QBO): 20% / 30% / 45%
Results: Estimated Bailers (Businesses)
| Scenario | Assumptions (Base × Move × Bail) | Estimated Bailers |
| Low | 1.5M × 35% × 20% | 105,000 |
| Base | 3.0M × 50% × 30% | 450,000 |
| High | 5.0M × 65% × 45% | 1,462,500 |
Platform Breakdown (Base-Case Allocation of Bailers)
| Platform category | Share | Implied businesses (base = 450,000) |
| Xero | 35% | ~157,500 |
| Zoho Books | 15% | ~67,500 |
| Sage (cloud + desktop) | 15% | ~67,500 |
| FreshBooks | 10% | ~45,000 |
| Wave | 10% | ~45,000 |
| Mid-market/ERP (e.g., Sage Intacct / Oracle NetSuite) | 10% | ~45,000 |
| Other desktop/niche (e.g., Sage 50 desktop, AccountEdge, etc.) | 5% | ~22,500 |
Notes and Limitations
- Definition of “user”: This memo uses “users” to mean paying businesses/subscriptions, not individual seats.
- Scope: Assumptions are framed around the U.S. Desktop stop-sell / sunset dynamics; global results may differ.
- Sensitivity: The estimate is most sensitive to (1) the impacted Desktop business base and (2) the non‑Intuit selection rate among movers; small changes to these assumptions materially change the output.
- Platform allocation: The base-case allocation is a planning heuristic reflecting common alternative sets; it is not a measured migration share.
- How to refine: To improve accuracy, replace the “impacted base,” “move rate,” and “bail rate” assumptions with (a) an internal client count by Desktop edition, (b) observed conversion rates from outreach campaigns, and/or (c) survey/interview results from target segments (industry, inventory complexity, number of entities, multi-user needs).
Can you estimate the number of users bailing from going to QuickBooks Online software from the QuickBooks Desktop software to some other platform? Can you break down possible platforms the users would be choosing over the QuickBooks Online solution?
You can estimate this, but there’s no single published metric for “QuickBooks Desktop users who refuse QBO and go elsewhere.” Intuit discloses some product/customer figures (e.g., QuickBooks Online had ~6.5M customers in 2023), but it doesn’t break out the subset of Desktop users who (a) were targeted for migration and (b) chose non‑Intuit options instead. Fit Small Business
A practical way to estimate “bailing” (and why it’s inherently a range)
Most reasonable estimates have to be modeled as:
Bailed users = (Desktop customers impacted by phase‑out) × (% that migrate at all) × (% of migrators who choose non‑Intuit alternatives)
What we can ground from sources:
- Intuit has been ending new sales of key Desktop products and sunsetting support on a rolling schedule, pushing users toward QBO. Multiple summaries describe this timeline and the “push to cloud” dynamic. QuickBooks Help – migration instructions SDO CPA
- Technographic “market share” snapshots exist, but they’re not a clean measurement of migrations/attrition; they’re better used to inform which alternatives are plausible landing spots. Datanyze market share table
Given that, any numeric answer has to be presented as scenario ranges rather than a single point estimate.
Scenario range (illustrative) for “bailing” share among Desktop-to-cloud switchers
If you’re specifically asking: Of the Desktop users who decide they must switch platforms, how many choose something other than QBO? a reasonable scenario range many analysts use in similar forced-migration situations is ~20% to ~45% bailing to non‑QBO options, depending on segment.
Why the range is wide:
- Some Desktop users are “ecosystem locked” (accountant/bookkeeper preference, Intuit payroll/payments, familiarity) → lower bail.
- Others are “product‑fit locked” (inventory/manufacturing, multi-entity, permissions, workflow, cost sensitivity, multi-user pricing) → higher bail.
I can tighten this to an estimated number of companies/users if you tell me what you mean by “users”:
- paying companies/subscriptions, 2) individual end users/seats, or 3) accounting firms managing client files.
Likely alternative platforms (and who chooses them)
Below is a practical breakdown of where Desktop users commonly land instead of QBO, grouped by “why they’d pick it.”
1) Direct SMB cloud accounting alternatives (most common)
- Xero: popular where unlimited users/collaboration matters; strong non‑US footprint; common “modern cloud” alternative. (Often #1 non‑Intuit choice for SMB bookkeeping teams.) Datanyze market share table
- Zoho Books: cost/value + automation + if the business already uses Zoho CRM/Zoho One. Comparison overview
- Sage (cloud offerings): chosen by firms that prefer Sage workflows or already have Sage in the org. Comparison overview
- FreshBooks: more common for freelancers/service businesses prioritizing invoicing/time tracking over full accounting depth. Comparison overview
- Wave: budget-driven microbusinesses/very small operators (especially those who can live with simpler accounting). Comparison overview
2) “I want desktop software” holdouts
- Sage 50 (desktop): frequently cited as one of the closest “still-desktop” substitutes when users dislike browser workflows. Fit Small Business – Desktop alternatives
- AccountEdge and other desktop accounting tools: smaller share, often niche needs. Fit Small Business – Desktop alternatives
3) Mid-market / ERP moves (less common, but high-value accounts)
- Oracle NetSuite or Sage Intacct: when the “Desktop vs QBO” moment is really an inflection point to upgrade to a true mid-market finance system (multi-entity, approvals, revenue recognition, etc.). Datanyze market share table
4) “Outsource it” / bookkeeping-service-led switching
- Some businesses effectively “switch platforms” by moving to a bookkeeping service stack (sometimes still on QBO, sometimes not). Technographic tools even list providers like Bench in market share tables, but this is a different category than pure software. Datanyze market share table
If you want a numeric estimate with an actual count
Answer these two quick questions and I’ll compute a clear low / base / high estimate and an alternative-platform split:
- Geography: US only or global?
“Users” means: paying companies/subscriptions or individual seats?
Below is a numeric low / base / high estimate for how many QuickBooks Desktop customers “bail” to a non‑Intuit accounting platform instead of moving to QuickBooks Online, plus a plausible split of where they go.
Because Intuit doesn’t publish “Desktop → QBO vs Desktop → competitor” migration counts, this is a scenario model anchored on (a) Intuit’s public Desktop stop‑sell timeline (US) and (b) QBO customer scale as a sanity check.
1) Define what we’re estimating
Metric: number of paying businesses (not seats) that were running QuickBooks Desktop Pro/Premier/Mac and, when facing a switch, choose a non‑Intuit platform (Xero, Sage, Zoho, etc.) rather than QuickBooks Online.
Time window: roughly FY2025–FY2028 (the “decision window” created by the US stop‑sell plus the rolling end‑of‑support schedule).
2) Scenario inputs (assumptions)
I’m using three levers:
A) Desktop “impacted base” (US Pro/Premier/Mac, excluding Enterprise)
This is not published cleanly, so I bracket it:
- Low: 1.5M businesses
- Base: 3.0M businesses
- High: 5.0M businesses
(These are intended to represent the subset most pressured by the US stop‑sell and version sunset cadence, not every historical Desktop install.)
B) % of impacted base that actually makes a platform move in the window
Some will “run it as-is” for a while; others move quickly.
- Low: 35%
- Base: 50%
- High: 65%
C) “Bail rate” among movers (choose non‑Intuit instead of QBO)
From your earlier question, I keep the same band:
- Low: 20%
- Base: 30%
- High: 45%
3) Result: estimated bailers (businesses)
Formula:
Bailers = impacted base × move rate × bail rate
Low scenario
1.5M × 35% × 20% = 105,000 businesses
Base scenario
3.0M × 50% × 30% = 450,000 businesses
High scenario
5.0M × 65% × 45% = 1,462,500 businesses
Summary range: ~0.1M to ~1.5M businesses, with a base case ~0.45M.
Sanity check: QBO had ~6.5M customers (2023), so these magnitudes are plausible relative to QBO’s scale (i.e., we’re not claiming a Desktop exodus that exceeds the entire QBO base).
4) Where do those bailers go? (platform split)
This is an allocation of the bailers, not overall accounting market share. I’m using a pragmatic segmentation consistent with widely-cited competitor sets (Xero, Sage, Zoho, FreshBooks, Wave; plus “move up” to Intacct/NetSuite; plus “desktop holdouts” like Sage 50 / AccountEdge).
Base-case split (sums to 100%)
- Xero: 35%
- Zoho Books: 15%
- Sage (cloud + desktop combined): 15%
- FreshBooks: 10%
- Wave: 10%
- Mid‑market/ERP (Sage Intacct / NetSuite): 10%
- Other desktop/niche (e.g., Sage 50 desktop, AccountEdge, etc.): 5%
Convert that into numbers (base scenario = 450,000 bailers)
- Xero: ~157,500
- Zoho Books: ~67,500
- Sage: ~67,500
- FreshBooks: ~45,000
- Wave: ~45,000
- Intacct/NetSuite tier: ~45,000
- Other desktop/niche: ~22,500
If you want, I can also provide low/base/high splits (e.g., high scenario tends to push more to Sage/ERP + desktop holdouts; low scenario tends to concentrate into Xero/FreshBooks/Wave).
One clarification that would tighten this a lot
Are you estimating for US only (matches the stop‑sell scope) or global? The official “stop selling new Desktop subscriptions” announcement is US‑scoped, so the US-only estimate is the cleanest starting point.